Recent discussions on nuclear facilities in Iran have set the regime in Iran on a possible collision course with the US, EU and the UN. While the latest US intelligence is more cautious, several commentators have speculated that there could be a military strike in the near future. This paper suggests that a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities could have major economic and social effects. Apart from the humanitarian and developmental effects in Iran itself, and in addition to the costs of a military strike itself, there are likely to be substantial effects on developing countries, particularly on poor, oil importing countries in Africa.

Dirk Willem te Velde