Shockwatch - Trade, investment, finance and growth

November 2011 to November 2015

In recent years, global markets have shown extraordinary and unprecedented levels of volatility. From the sharp food and fuel price spikes of 2008 to the global economic crisis of 2009, it has been clear that global economic forces can transmit rapid effects onto the development pathways of all low- and lower-middle income countries, but that the specifics of each event can vary enormously.

This project will review the evolving global macro-economic situation, assess the vulnerability of developing countries to global economic, energy and financial shocks, monitor their impacts and analyse policy responses at the country and global level.

Two major areas of focus will be:

  • the vulnerability of developing countries to oil price shocks and the most promising policy responses to energy shock crises, and
  • the exposure of low- and lower-middle income countries to the European debt crisis and their ability to respond with adequate policies to prevent or contain its effects.

During 2012 and 2013, in-depth studies and analysis will be produced to monitor the impact of major global economic shocks on low-income countries, focusing on those which are most relevant for their growth.

These ‘bulletins’ will include follow-up tracking of the shocks already under analysis, along with new topics of importance, such as the implications of an economic slowdown in China and India, and discussion of country-level impacts.

Outputs

The development implications of the fracking revolution

Working and discussion papers | April 2014 | Zhenbo Hou, Dean Granoff, Ilmi Granoff, Jodie Keane, Jane Kennan, Andrew Norton and Dirk Willem te Velde
​This paper explores the shale gas revolution and the impact of fracking on developing economies.
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Energy price shocks: sweet and sour consequences for developing countries

Working and discussion papers | August 2012 | Nicola Cantore with Alessandro Antimiani and Paulo Rui Anciaes
This paper discusses the effects of recent energy price changes on developing countries. It reviews the transmission channels between energy prices and growth and distribution in developing countries based on the most recent literature; employs a computable General...
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The euro zone crisis and developing countries

Working and discussion papers | May 2012 | Isabella Massa, Jodie Keane and Jane Kennan
This ODI Working Paper analyses the vulnerability of developing countries to the euro zone crisis, looking at differences across countries and groups of countries
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