Pan-participatory Assessment and Governance of Earthquake Risks in the Ordos Area (PAGER-O)

January 2016 to June 2019

This three-and-a-half year project was based on and substantially extended the reach, depth, and likely impact of Earthquakes without Frontiers (EwF): a partnership for increasing resilience to seismic hazards. The project brought together natural and social scientists, communications specialists and creatives with policy-makers, practitioners and local communities, using a transdisciplinary approach to identify and fill knowledge gaps, and co-produce evidence-based approaches to reduce risk and increase resilience to earthquake hazards.

Eight institutions were involved in the delivery: The Overseas Development Institute, London (ODI), the Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration (IGCEA), China Earthquake Disaster Prevention Centre, CEA (CEDPC), the univeristies of Oxford and Cambridge, the Hong Kong Polytechnic University (HKPU), Sha’anxi Gender Development Solutions, and Geohazards International.

The Research and Policy in Development (RAPID) programme (now Digital Societies) led the research. It also provided practical support to feed this into effective policy and practice in earthquake disaster risk reduction (DRR) in the Ordos region, and in China more widely.

The project created a first-of-its-kind earthquake resilience scenario and communications tools in China, targeting Weinan city in Shaanxi Province. The hypothetical earthquake scenario analysed the consequences of a repeat of the 1568 M∼7 Shaanxi Gaoling earthquake in terms of building damages, impacts on infrastructure, casualties, direct economic losses, as well as socio-economic vulnerabilities and preparedness to earthquakes of the local population.

All this information was then used to create innovative scenario narratives in the form of a graphic novel for the general public and a technical booklet for policy makers to increase awareness and improve DRR policy and practice.

We list below publications and commentary the project as they are finalised and published. Several technical articles are currently in the publication process with various academic journals:


Creating an earthquake scenario in China: a case study in Weinan City, Shaanxi province

Journal articles or issues | August 2019 | Yue Cao, Janise Rodgers, Guiwu Su, Wenhua Qi, David Milledge, Alexander Densmore, Craig Davis, Philip England, John Young, Arrietta Chakos, Xiaoli Li, Timothy Sim, Emily So, Barry Parsons, Lei Sun, Junlei Yu and Chunlan Guo
This paper discusses a transdisciplinary scenario approach to earthquake disaster risk reduction in China, using a case study in Weinan City.

Homecoming: a story about how a strong earthquake affects a family with ‘left-behind’ children

Toolkits | April 2019 | Yue Cao, Janise Rodgers, Guiwu Su, Timothy Sim, Philip England, John Young, Wenhua Qi, Xiaoli Li, Zhiqiang Li, Yaohui Liu, Min Qi, Lei Sun, Jie Gao, Dongming Wang, Wei Shi, Chunlan Guo, Junlei Yu, Xijie Feng, Ji Ma, Kun Chen, Barry Parsons, Emily So, Arrietta Chakos, Craig Davis, Alexander Densmore and David Milledge
Using a scenario approach, these two narratives aim at improving earthquake safety, preparedness and resilience in earthquake-prone regions in China.