Projecting national poverty to 2030

Research reports and studies
March 2016
Chris Hoy

At a global level, the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 1.2 of halving poverty according to national definitions gets less attention than the target of eradicating extreme poverty worldwide. For country governments focusing on implementing the 2030 Agenda however, national poverty is more politically salient and relevant to policy.

Governments can choose when and by how much to increase national poverty lines as their country becomes richer. Achieving the SDG target depends on how much countries grow, on how that growth is distributed and on what adjustments are made to national poverty lines.

This report provides an overview of current national poverty lines and examines the feasibility of meeting SDG target 1.2 by illustrating what levels of national poverty could exist in 2030. The paper considers a range of scenarios that explore the viability of the SDG target and the crucial role governments will play in choosing whether to change (or maintain) national poverty lines.