The evidence base on anticipatory action

Working and discussion papers

May 2020

Lena Weingartner, Tobias Pforr and Emily Wilkinson

A man receives warning about the return of rains in the Somali region of Ethiopia. Photo: Edwina Stevens/Small World Stories/Ethiopia Delivering as One

Anticipatory action (AA) is attracting global attention, with the number of pilot initiatives that deliver support to vulnerable communities before disasters strike growing in number and size. Such initiatives, often referred to as forecast-based early action (FbA), forecast-based financing (FbF) and early warning early action (EWEA), rely on forecasting and risk information to trigger planned and pre-financed actions when a disaster is imminent or before acute impacts are felt.

This paper takes stock of the evidence produced so far on the benefits of acting prior to the onset – or deepening – of a crisis. Overall, existing evidence indicates that the effects of AA at household level are mainly positive. For instance, beneficiaries experience: less psychosocial stress when floods hit; higher crop productivity and less food insecurity during prolonged periods of drought; and lower livestock mortality during severe cold spells. However, not all expected benefits are observed in all cases, and findings should be considered in context and in relation to the kind of action taken. Acting early can be better than doing nothing, but it is less clear whether it is better than doing other things at other times.

This research was undertaken in collaboration with the World Food Programme.

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The evidence base on anticipatory action