Uganda: Case Study for the MDG Gap Task Force Report

Research reports and studies
May 2010
Jodie Keane, Jane Kennan, Massimiliano Cali, Isabella Massa and Dirk Willem te Velde and Sarah Ssewanyana and James Wokadada from the EPRC in Uganda.

The United Nations (UN) compiles the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) Gap Report. The 2010 version of the report will emphasise the ‘needs gap’, which measures the gap between actual delivery on global commitments and ‘estimated needs for support’ by developing countries. This is an important gap, because it provides an estimate relating to whether the partnership envisaged under MDG 8 is effectively helping to address the needs of developing countries.

One way to analyse the needs gap and the way MDG 8 commitments could help is through in-depth country case studies of individual countries to review where the gaps are and discuss recent trends with respect to development finance. Four country studies (Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cambodia and Uganda) will focus on the needs gap in official development assistance (ODA), trade and debt relief. They will analyse whether the commitments and delivery in these three essential and interrelated areas are meeting the actual needs of these countries over 2000 until 2009, with attention regarding the impact of the economic crisis on these three areas.

This paper discusses these issues in the case of Uganda. It will first review progress towards reaching the MDGs (Section 2). It will then provide evidence on how indicators in the areas of aid, trade and debt have evolved (Section 3). This will provide the background of a discussion on how MDG 8 has already been addressing the MDG needs gaps (Section 4). Section 5 concludes.

Uganda has performed extremely well since the mid 1990s. It has had two decades of uninterrupted growth (albeit with rising inequality and string population growth) and several of the MDGs are likely to be met (e.g. halving poverty and improving access to water and education), although some (health related) may not be attained so this is a serious shortcoming. Uganda has weathered the storm of the financial crisis relatively well (Te Velde et al, 2010), as its macroeconomic indicators such as debt, government deficits and growth have remained stable. Of course, the crisis has had some impact and will reinforce the relevance of MDG 8 commitments, but it is unlikely that the crisis has seriously affected progress towards the MDGs.

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