Shockwatch Bulletin: monitoring the impact of the euro zone crisis, China/India slow-down, and energy price shocks on lower-income countries

Working and discussion papers
October 2012
Isabella Massa, Nicola Cantore, Jodie Keane, Jane Kennan and Dirk Willem te Velde

This ODI Working Paper synthesises findings on the global macro-economic and financial situation from existing publications and secondary data, on a selected sample of developing countries to the three current major global shocks (the euro zone crisis, China’s and India’s growth slow-down, energy price shocks), and on three detailed case studies (Cambodia, Kenya and Zambia).

It provides an update on the macro-economic and financial situation of lower-income developing countries in the context of the largest current global shocks. In particular, it aims to:

  • update information on the effects of the euro zone crisis, the slow-down of growth in China and India and energy price shocks by examining the following transmission mechanisms: private capital flows (splitting out portfolio flows, foreign direct investment (FDI) and international bank lending); trade; remittances; aid; and energy prices;
  • update information on expected country vulnerability to these shocks;
  • examine in more detail a number of countries as case studies, and report how they have been affected by recent shocks and how they have responded;
  • continue to monitor policy responses at both the global and country levels.